Negating Promoter Greed

You like a stock. 

You’ve checked it out. 

Fundamentals are under control. 

You find the management reasonable.

They’re shareholder-friendly. 

They have high salaries though, specifically those connected to the promoter-group. 

Now, you need to answer some questions.

Are you ok with high salaries for the top staff?

What is your definition of high?

Are salaries performance-driven?

Do the company’s number justify what promoter-connected management is taking home?

Ok. 

You’ve answered these questions. 

You still want the stock, despite the fact that an answer to two could be an outlier. 

That’s fine. 

One won’t find perfection anywhere. 

If one finds it, the stock will probably already be overpriced. 

So, you’re ok with mild imperfection, as long as your basic needs are met. 

You decide to purchase the stock. 

Here’s how you can negate promoter greed. 

The fancy cars, the family dish outs, the pushed-in lunch bills, the first class travel, you get the drift. 

Who doesn’t do it, given the opportunity?

Your promoter is human, and will surround him- or herself with comforts, at the company’s expense. 

That is the norm. Get used to it. 

Here’s how you are not letting this affect you. 

You buy in a staggered fashion. 

You buy with margin of safety. 

Because you’re sure of fundamentals, you average down. 

Each time your holding average touches a new low, you’ve secured yourself against promoter greed just a tad more. 

Because of sound fundamentals, ultimately, the stock will start to rise. 

That’s the time your low holding average will show a stellar profit for you. 

Perhaps your holding average is better than that of the promoter.

If that is the case, rise in price has given you more profit than it has to the promoter. 

Therefore, while the promoter got to live in the lap of luxury at the cost of the company, you were busy raking in a better result owing to the price rise.

Successive margin of safety buying amounting to averaging down after convincing oneself of intact fundamentals has been the key for you. 

Use this key, but do so wisely, and safely. 

Remember, that averaging down only works well in the case of diligent, research-based long-term investing. Averaging down is a strict no-no for short-term traders, however. 

Wishing you happy and fruitful investing!

🙂

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Own Crypto?

Own any Crypto?

You’re a target.

Period. 

Are you ok being a target?

The tension doesn’t get you down?

You take it in your stride?

Fine. 

You’re probably good for the game. 

I am not. 

I don’t like the tension. 

I don’t want any crypto on any of my devices, alone because of the tension element. 

I don’t wish to be a target. 

I don’t like the History, with exchanges going bust et al, cryptojackings, and what have you. 

I don’t like the bubble-chart. 

Governments are pushing against it. 

Top banks dissuade. They’re not willing to hold it in their cyber-lockers, for then, they become targets. 

Then, just too many cousins. Which cousins are the black sheep? Which one will go all the way? Who knows?

Let’s talk volatility now. 

Bought some crypto? Down 20% since? Now what?

I don’t want to be faced with these questions on a daily basis. 

Terrorist push. They move it with crypto. 

I don’t want to be moving it like terrorists do. 

Russian servers? Bulgarian IP? 

Already getting the jitters. 

I don’t comprehend blockchain.

Multiple people saying something is something doesn’t make that something something. 

Is someone making a very big fool of a lot of people, and getting away with it too?

Too many “I don’ts”.

Too many red flags.

Next, you’re telling me that I’m a target too. 

Fine. 

However, for whatever I’m a target, for that thing the criminal will need to accost me physically, on the road, or in my house. 

Are you getting it?

The robber will have to rob my house physically. 

Not so the case with you, crypto-owner. 

The hacker can hack from any corner of the globe. 

Criminals don’t wish to be cracking safes when they can steal from computers thousands of miles away. 

So,…

…careful. 

Time your Friend or Time your Enemy?

This one depends…

…on you.

How is time treated in your curriculum with regard to the markets?

Are you in a hurry…

…or is your motto “hurry spoils the curry”?

One can make any market action an extremely difficult one if one squeezes time. 

On the other hand, the same market action yields great results when time is stretched to infinity. 

One can understand this in the predicament of the trader.

Expiry is due. 

Trades are in loss. 

It seems that trades are not going to make it to break-even by expiry.

They would probably be showing a profit after expiry. 

However, time-span for validity of the trades has been squeezed to expiry. 

Hence, the trader faces loss. 

The investor, on the other hand, is invested in the stock of the same underlying, and doesn’t dabble in the derivative. 

For the investor, time has been expanded to infinity. 

The investor doesn’t feel pain from a time-window that’s about to close.

Now, let’s look at the cons for the investor, and the pros for the trader. 

The price for making time one’s friend is the principal being locked-in for that much time. 

The investor is comfortable with that. 

If not, the investor feels pain from the lock-in, and may make a detrimental move that works against long-term investing philosophy, as in cutting a sound investment at its bottom-most point during a long drawn-out correction. 

Investors need to fulfil the comfort condition before committing to infinity. 

After a small loss, the trader moves on with the bulk of his or her funds. 

Traders needs to take a loss in stride. 

If not, future trades get affected. 

The advantage of committing funds for short periods, in trades, is that one can utilize the same funds many times over. 

The price for using short periods of time to one’s advantage, however, is tension. 

One is glued to the market, and is not really able to use the same time productively, elsewhere. 

Friendship with one aspect of time works adversely with regard to another aspect of time. 

The investor is not glued to market movements. He or she can utilize his or time for multiple purposes while being invested simultaneously and then forgetting temporarily about the long-term investment. 

It is easier to forget temporarily about an investment than it is to forget about a trade. 

Over the years, I have found it difficult to combine trading and long-term investing, specifically in the same market.

However, I do take occasional trades, apart from being invested for the long term. 

This works for me when the markets in question are different, as in Forex and Equity. 

Price Based Margin of Safety

You might laugh at this one.

However, it is need based. 

We have been talking so much about small entry quanta. 

A small entry quantum allows for smaller mistakes.

It allows you to enter many times. 

It is small enough to make your capacity for entry outlast the number of margin of safety market days in a year. 

You take your savings. You define what you want to invest in equity for the year. 

You divide it by an estimate for the margin of safety days you might be getting for the year. You arrive at this number by estimating over a ten year average. 

Upon this division, you get your daily entry quantum, for the whole year, on margin of safety days. 

I go one step further to keep a constant small entry quantum defined for longer periods, for any particular entry day. 

As we said, small entry quanta should also mean many entries. 

We won’t be getting the same margin of safety every day.

On many days, we won’t be getting margin of safety at all, in the purist sense of its definition.

We will need to tweak the definition of margin of safety a bit, to have access to many entries. 

We are doing this because we are already on safe grounds. 

First up, we are playing with money we won’t be requiring for the next ten years, or so we estimate. 

Then, this is the money that is coming from our savings and is going into equity. It is for no other purpose. If it eventually doesn’t go into equity, we will end up finding some other use for it, such is human nature, and such is the nature of these multi-tasking times. 

Thus, if we see even a smallish entry possibility, we take it, because of the nature of the small entry quantum approach. 

How do we propose to tweak margin of safety?

We watch the price of a scrip we are unable to enter in. 

We watch, and we watch. 

Still too high. High, too, are fundamental entry allowers (FEAs), like price to earnings, price to book value, price to cash-flow, price to sales, etc., and we don’t enter. 

Then, one day, price starts to drop, for whatever reason. 

It continues to drop to a level, where we feel that for this particular scrip, that’s a pretty decent correction. 

It’s all feeling. 

You can look at charts, but then you tend to look once a month, and the feeling element fails to develop properly. 

So, we’re feeling pretty good about the level of correction, and we cast a glance at the FEAs. 

These are still a tad high, albeit much lower than before. 

For the FEAs to become lower than classic margin of safety levels, there could be a longer wait, or this event might not even happen, especially if we are looking at growth scrips.

If the event does not happen, it means no entry, and with our approach of small entry quanta, this leaves us high and dry with respect to the scrip. 

Are we going to let that happen?

Because of our safe small entry quantum approach, we are not going to let that happen if we can help it. 

When price offers margin of safety but FEAs are still a tad high, we enter with one quantum. 

Then we wait.

Scrip quotes some percentage points (2%, 3%, 5%, you choose) lower than our last entry. We enter with one more quantum, and so on. 

Now, two things can happen. 

The scrip can start zooming from here, and you are going to feel good about your entries. 

Or, the scrip falls further, and quotes lower than classical FEA definitions for margin of safety. 

Are you going to feel bad about your previous entries, which were small mistakes?

No.

Why?

You are too busy undertaking further entries into the scrip, quantum by quantum, for as long as the scrip quotes at levels below classical FEA definitions for margin of safety. 

Soon, you have a lot of entries done, at these safe levels, and you have more than made up for your few small mistakes. 

You’re good. 

In the other scenario, you were good anyways. 

Thanks to your small entry quantum strategy, it’s been a win-win for you all around. 

 

Not Everyday is an MoS Day

Dear Long-Term Investors,

How are you?

Hope this finds you in the pink of health, and without itchy fingers. 

After running through a 70-odd day corrective phase, the Indian markets don’t seem to be offering margin of safety (MoS) anymore. 

Or so I feel. 

The groove had become natural from mid January to the beginning of April. 

There was something to be bought, almost everyday. 

One would wake up thinking about what one would be buying for the long-term when the markets opened. 

Over the last ten days, I haven’t felt like buying anything. 

My fingers are itchy.

I’m raring to go. 

However, margin of safety is not there. 

It might return, in some form or the other, and that too soon. However, it doesn’t prevail just now, as per my understanding. 

Where does that leave me?

I can now opt for compulsive buying. However, my market experience has taught me otherwise. It’s a simple rule – no margin of safety, no buying. Period. 

I focus on other stuff. 

I have a trading operation. 

I focus on that. 

I write. 

I read.

I chant. 

I plan my summer vacation. 

I attend to family matters. 

There’s other business that needs attending. 

I travel. 

However, I don’t resort to compulsive buying. 

Can you stop yourself from compulsive buying? However itchy your fingers are?

It’s not easy. Nevertheless, it’s mandatory. 

The follow-through energy from an existing groove needs to be diverted until it is fully dissipated. 

If you don’t succeed with this, you’ll end up with over-priced buys in your long-term portfolio.

This spells disaster, because lack of margin of safety won’t allow you to sit when markets crash. 

And crash they will. 

Every market crashes, some time or the other. 

That’s when your margin of safety allows you to sit quietly and sleep properly. 

You then have the acumen to recognize the re-existence of margin of safety.

Also, you have the energy to act upon your identification of the re-existence of margin of safety. 

You buy more, because MoS days are there again. 

… And Why Growth Stocks…?

Well, why not?

We’ve got History on our side.

Buffett shifted a tad from value to growth in the latter part of his career.

Forget about all that.

We get into growth because we wish to get into growth.

We’re not buying at growth prices, mind you.

Our value background comes in handy. We use value techniques to pick up growth.

We continue to accumulate upon opportunity, quantum by quantum.

Our portfolio gets rounded.

Over the long run, its gets a bit of a boost.

Ideally, we’d like our growth stories to continue, forever.

Consider this. What if even one of our holdings makes it to a 1000-bagger?

What do you think this would do to our portfolio?

Exactly.

Lots that starts out as value becomes growth later.

We pick value with growth in mind.

Sometimes, we’re not offered value in something we want to pick, for a long, long time.

We’re not offered value in the traditional sense of the way we expect value to be.

At these times we evaluate.

Is this something to “wantable” that we have to have it, like Buffett and Coca Cola?

No?

Continue as normal.

Yes?

Create new criteria for value, within growth.

Enter only when these criteria prevail, quantum by quantum.

Sit on your growth holding. Don’t just exit in a growth fashion, upon any odd market high.

Exits are reserved for when you comprehensively don’t want the stock anymore.

Why’s it not stinging you when there is a correction?

Meaning, that growth stocks fall considerably during corrections.

Well, firstly, you are not using money that you might need in the foreseeable future.

Then, the correction is an entry opportunity, so instead of being glum, you are busy going about entering.

Thirdly, because you are entering quantum by quantum, you have tremendous entry potential still left, with more being added to this month upon month, from your savings.

So, you’re not worried when your growth stocks fall.

When they rise, your portfolio burgeons, so…

…for all the above reasons…

…that’s why growth, too, apart from your value pursuits.

How to Enter into a Growth Stock

You can play this one in different ways.

The successful way for you will depend upon your risk profile.

What we will be discussing here is a kind of a value way for growth stock entry.

Fine. What sets growth stocks apart from value stocks?

Valuation.

Growth stocks have high multiples.

What does that leave us margin of safety people?

Will we completely have to stay away from growth stocks?

No.

There’s a way.

Loosen your margin of safety criteria slightly. Bring it up to, for example, PE < 15, amongst other things. (We’ll compensate for this loosening, you’ll see).

Now wait.

Let the stock correct.

PE goes under 15.

Don’t enter yet.

Now we compensate.

We let more margin of safety develop in the price.

We want price going down to a technically viable level for entry.

This can be a Fibonacci level, a support, a base, a pivot, or what have you.

Three things have happened.

You have identified a stock through your due diligence.

You have waited for it to reach desired valuation after raising your valuation criteria a tad to compensate for the growth aspect.

You have compensated for your compensation by waiting further for a technical level to be hit before entering.

Now, you enter.

Your entry price becomes your base. (Subsequent entries will always refer to the base-price average).

You have entered with your minimum entry quantum.

You will take many entries, each with your minimum entry quantum.

You will keep taking entry till all the above criteria keep being met.

When even one criterion is not met, you will stop entering and will sit tight.

You will keep watching the stock and its management.

If entry criteria are not met for a long time, but stock is still not over-valued as such, you can enter once for every shareholder-friendly act of good governance, upon an interim dip in price.

You will only stop entering when over-valuation rules and becomes obvious.

You will think of exiting when you are no longer convinced about the stock.

Exit will be done upon a market high only.

Hopefully, you won’t need to exit for a long, long time, so that your investment turns into a multi-multi-bagger!

🙂