R&D Experimental Action – BHEL – Nov 30 2012

Scrip – BHEL.

Currently Market Price – Rs. 232.10.

Experimental Action – Buy 240 Call Option (expiry Dec 27 2012) now.

Rationale – is explained in the chart given in this link : BHEL – PATTERN BUY – NOV 30 2012.

Disclaimer and Disclosure – Technicals are gauged and shown using Advanced GET 9.1 EoD Dashboard Edition. I entered this trade around 11:30 am today. Opinions given here are mine only. You are free to build your own view on the stock. I bear no responsibility for any resulting loss, should you choose to enter this trade.

Downside – Entire option premium, about Rs. 5400 per call just now. Your option premium could be considered your stop, if you don’t want to manage your trade actively. If you do, you can set your stop to fractions of the option premium. In fact, you can go about your trade management however which way you wish to do so. Point is, trades need to be managed, either actively or passively.

Upside – roughly > 2 times the option premium (estimated). Estimation of the upside here could be considered an art, roughly based on the chart patterns at hand, coupled with my interpretation of suggestions by the software OptionScope Version 9.1 by Equis international.

Thus, reward : risk for the strategy discussed is rougly > 2 : 1 (estimated).

Cheers. 🙂

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Due Diligence Snapshot + Technical Cross-Section — Ador Fontech Limited — Nov 27 2012

Price – Rs. 81.30 per share

Earnings Per Share projected on the basis of quarter ended Sep 30 2012 – Rs. 12.62

Price to Earnings Ratio (thus, also projected) – 6.44

Price to Book Value Ratio – the stock is selling at approximately 2 x book value currently

Debt : Equity Ratio – Nil

Current Ratio – 2.73

Profit After Tax Margin – 12.51%

Return on Networth – 32.54 %

Pledged Shares %age – Nil

Face Value – Rs. 2.00

Dividend Payout – 50% -150% of face-value.

Average Daily Volumes – around 5 – 6 k / day on BSE.

Product – Reclamation of alloys, fusion surfacing (preventive welding), spraying and environmental solutions.

Promoters – JB Advani & Company Pvt Ltd (of Advani-Oerlikon fame) + a group of other Sindhi business-people.

Share-holding Pattern – Promoters (35.4%), Public (58.9%), Institutions (2.0%), NICBs (3.7%).

Technicals (see chart below) – This is a very low volume scrip, so there could be slippage. The scrip has corrected from its June 2011 peak of Rs. 150.90 to a pivot of Rs. 73.25 within about one year. This low pivot lies bang in between the 50% and the 61.8% Fibonacci levels of correction on the weekly chart. Currently, the scrip is quoting at Rs. 81.30, just below the Fib. 50% level. Volumes are average, with one high volume peak every 7 odd trading days. The scrip is trading in a broad band between Rs. 73.25 and Rs. 93.90. Perhaps it is trying to establish a base.

Comments – Fundamentals are good, and the company’s corporate governance is considered clean. Market for the company’s niche is considered small, and people view that as a long-term growth concern. Technically, correction has taken place, and thus value shines out fundamentally. Debt is nil. Dividend is excellent. Projected PE is low, though P/BV is a bit high. Cushion is there, and profitability and returns are exemplary. Future investment would be required to keep niche-segment status alive.

Buy? – I like the theme – reclamation and preventive welding. Contrary to what others say, I feel the market is going to grow phenomenally, as earth and rare-earth metals become difficult to source, and need to be reclaimed. Valuations are excellent, governance is great, payouts are great too, and a technical buying level has presented itself. Yes, it’s a long-term buy right now. Remember, this is not a trade we are speaking about, so we are not going to talk in terms of a stop-loss. This is a long-term investment, and we’ve been speaking in terms of margin of safety, which I’m sure you’ve noticed. Also, while buying, one needs to show caution regarding slippage, which is invariably going to occur owing to the low-volume nature of the scrip.

Disclaimer and Disclosure – Opinions given here are mine only. You are free to build your own view on the stock. I have bought a miniscule stake in Ador Fontech today. Data given here has been compiled from motilaloswal.com, moneycontrol.com and equitymaster.com. Technicals have been gauged and shown using Metastock Professional version 9.1 by Equis International.

Due Diligence Snapshot – Mindtree Limited – Nov. 24 2012

Price – Rs. 665.25 per share

Earnings Per Share (projected on the basis of quarter ended Sep 30 ’12) – Rs. 70.61

Price to Earnings Ratio (thus, also projected) – 9.42

Price to Book Value – 2.82 (it’s ok for small to mid-sized IT companies to have a high price to book ratio, because book value doesn’t reflect human capital, and small to mid-sized IT companies are more about human capital than about real-estate, hardware etc. Thus, since the real book value is not going to be available, the given price to book ratio could be treated as an artefact, unless it is unreasonably high, which is not the case here).

Debt : Equity Ratio – 0.03

Current Ratio – 2.10

Profit After Tax Margin – 12.11%

Return on Networth – > 25 %

Pledged Shares %age – Nil

Face Value – Rs. 10.00

Dividend Payout – 25% – 30% of face-value.

Average Daily Volumes – around 1 Lakh per day on NSE.

Product – Product Engineering Services, IT Services, worked on Bluetooth technology, also worked on UID (Aadhaar) project.

Promoters – Mr. Bagchi (set up Six-Sigma services at Wipro) and Mr. Soota (has now retired from Mindtree, ex-Wipro, amongst others, responsible for Wipro’s phenomenal growth). Mr. Natarajan is co-founder and current CEO, and is also ex-Wipro.

Share-holding Pattern – Foreign Promoters (3.5%), Indian Promoters (15.9%), Institutions (33.0%), Non-Institutional Corporate Bodies (30.2%), Public (15.7%).

Technicals – IPO days in March 2007 were big, with the scrip peaking at Rs. 1023.30 very early into its launch. By March ’09, though, Mindtree had bottomed out at Rs. 187.05. It then made a high pivot of Rs. 747.00 in Jan ’10, fell to Rs. 321.00 by August 2011, and is currently on the rise, forming a cup and handle pattern on the weekly chart, with the handle having broken out in Sep ’12 to 770.00 on average volume. This was a false breakout, and the scrip came down, to then move in a band between Rs. 633.80 and Rs. 699.90. Currently, Mindtree is quoting at Rs. 665.25, and Friday (Nov. 23rd, 2012) saw it rise by approximately 1 % on volume that was three times its 50-day moving average and many more times its 10-day moving average.

Comments – I like all the fundamentals. Couldn’t find any scams or frauds related to the company, looked only online though. Debt-equity ratio almost nil, great! Ex-Wipro people are the promoters. CEO is ex-Wipro. Friday’s higher volume has gotten me on alert. If all-round conditions in the markets remain stable, the scrip could break-out to beyond Rs. 770 soon. Glassdoor has “OK’d” work culture at Mindtree, with the same rating that Infosys has received. Salaries are considered on the lower side, though, at Mindtree. Also, some employees feel that company is stagnating. Reasons why Mr. Ashok Soota left the company are unclear to me. On the other hand, corporate governance still seems to be decent at Mindtree.

Buy? – Hmmmm, I like almost everything, except the salary and the stagnation bit. Mr. Soota’s presence would have been a bonus. I can take a “stagnating” company that generates good numbers. The ratios are all good, and profitability is decent. There’s almost no debt on the balance-sheet. No shares have been pledged. Dividend is decent. Excellent return on networth. Company does R&D too. Question is, will the scrip correct another 30 to 40 bucks to the lower end of it’s current band, so that one can pick it up 5 odd % cheaper? Anybody’s guess. One could actually go and pick it up now. Earnings are good, and so is the projected PE, well below the industry average, actually.

Disclaimer and Disclosure – Opinions given here are mine only. You are free to build your own view on the stock. Currently, I don’t hold a position in Mindtree Limited, but am considering long-term entry on the basis of what I have found and liked. Data given here has been compiled from motilaloswal.com, moneycontrol.com and equitymaster.com, and technicals have been gauged using Advanced GET 9.1 EoD Dashboard Edition.

Due Diligence Snapshot – Micro Technologies Limited – November 04 2012

Price as on Nov. 04 2012 – Rs. 44.60 per share

Earnings Per Share (trailing 12 month earnings)- Rs. 37.77

Price / Earnings Ratio – 1.18

Price / Book Value – 0.21

Debt : Equity Ratio – 0.55

Current Ratio – 5.63

Quick Ratio – 4.43

Net Profit Margin – 5.98 %

Face Value – Rs. 10.00

Dividend Payout – 10% – 20% of face-value.

Product – IT-based security products.

Promoter – Dr. P. Sekhar, ” a creative entrepreneur”.

Share-holding Pattern – Promoters (36.2%), Non-Institutional Corporate Bodies (42.1%), Individual Investors (19.0%).

Technicals – Since its January ’08 high of Rs. 192.50, the stock has corrected majorly to Rs. 26.80, recovered a little more than half-way (to Rs. 114.00), corrected again to Rs. 50.40, then recovered again to Rs. 91.40, again corrected to a low of Rs. 38.05, and is now in the process of rising, although institutional volume is not accompanying this rise.

Comments – Fundamentals are strong. They absolutely do not match the sell-off to a low of Rs. 38.05 very recently. Why is there a mismatch between fundamentals and technicals?

Possible Reason – There seems to be employee dissatisfaction doing the rounds, owing to questionable corporate governance. Another case of highly debatable corporate governance seems to come to light. In my opinion, this case seems to affect all shareholders negatively. Primarily, this case affected all FCCB (Foreign Currency Convertible Bond) holders, but then the company’s actions concerning the FCCBs possibly disillusioned a part of the shareholders, who went on to sell the scrip. Increase in selling pressure led to a tanking share-price, and this was negative for all share-holders.

Outlook? – You need to decide whether a part of the company’s corporate governance policy is a deal-breaker that overrides the strong fundamentals on paper.

Disclaimer / Disclosure : The opinions given above are mine only. You are free to form your own view on the stock. I don’t hold any position in Micro Technologies Limited. Data given here has been compiled from motilaloswal.com, moneycontrol.com and equitymaster.com, and technicals have been gauged using Advanced GET 9.1 EoD Dashboard Edition.

Two Minutes of Freedom

Why have you come?

Meaning, why are you here? What’s the purpose of your earthly sojourn?

Do you want to do something new?

No? How boring is that?

Why would you just want to live and leave with nothing original to your credit?

At times, I feel the urge to discover something earth-shaking.

Don’t you?

I mean, don’t you want to go where no human has gone before?

Whether we are successful or not is not the point.

At least we possess this desire.

And that’s where freedom of thought comes in.

You are born free, to think.

No one can steal that freedom from you, even in the worst conditions of bondage.

Use your freedom.

Think freely, even if it’s for two minutes a day.

Lose all shackles, as a rocket in space loses a burnt surplus engine. Define your own path, and think freely on that path. Develop it, bit by bit.

Slowly, your thought will take form. A whole system of work will emerge. Keep developing this.

Your system will take you places. For example, if you’re playing the markets, it’ll win you money.

It is new, it is original, it is your system, and it can well take you where no human has gone before.

Well done, keep going … … and it’s all happening because of the two minutes of freedom you allowed yourself.

Who Told Who So?

Nobody’s in a position to tell anyone so.

That’s the marketplace for you in a nutshell.

There are times when you’re sure a scrip has peaked, and it just keeps on going higher, and higher, and then even higher.

At other times, a scrip might show tremendous valuations, but it just refuses to rise. 9 years in a row. Just refuses to rise.

Welcome to a world where if you’re able to watch your own back, you’re good.

In the world we are speaking about, a Rakesh or a Warren are what they are because that’s what suits them particularly. What suits them might most definitely not suit you. What makes you think you can emulate someone in the marketplace?

That’s the whole point, people.

You need to carve out your own unique niche in the marketplace. Something that suits you, and just you. If you do that, you’ll be happy. Satisfied from within. And that’s when you’ll start doing well.

Your best performances will come when you start being … … yourself.

Playing someone else’s game? Well, try to. Don’t be surprised if you lose your pants.

Your biochemistry is unique. So are your reactions to subtle changes around you. Thus, your interactions and dialogues with Mrs. Market need to be unique. These need to cater to your needs, your queries, your tendencies and your idiosyncrasies.

We try to follow rules. We want to master Mrs. Market. Frankly, what a joke!

Firstly, we need to make our own rules, for ourselves.

Secondly, Mrs. Market needs to be understood, even if for short spans, and she most definitely doesn’t need to be mastered. She’ll master you rather than you her. Be wary of her, win from her, but why do you wish to conquer? Fool’s paradise. Stick to the script, pal. Take your winnings and go. Why do you bet the farm, in an effort to make a killing? You’re not proving any point to anyone. Everyone’s busy doing their own thing with Mrs. M. No one’s looking at you. You don’t need to prove anything to anyone. Don’t bet the farm. Stick to the script. Take your winnings and go.

So, what’s the real learning in this world we speak about?

When you go wrong. That’s when real learning begins. How do you handle yourself? How do you come back? How do you start winning again? How do you then keep winning, again, and again, and again.

That’s the learning.

I didn’t tell you so.

You discovered it for yourself.

Remember that.

Discover it for yourself.

What’re you waiting for?

A Tool By The Name of “Barrier”

Come into some money?

Just don’t say you’re going to spend it all.

Have the decency to at least save something.

And all of a sudden, our focus turns to the portion you’ve managed to save.

If you don’t fetch out your rule-book now, you’ll probably bungle up with whatever’s left too.

Have some discipline in life, pal.

The first thing you want to do is to set a barrier.

Barrier? Huh? What kind of barrier?

And why?

The barrier will cut off immediate and direct access to your saved funds. You’ll get time to think, when hit by the whim and fancy to spend your funds.

For example, a barrier can be constructed by simply putting your funds in a money-market scheme. With that, you’ll have put 18 hours between you and access, because even the best of money market schemes take at least 18 hours to transfer your funds back into your bank account.

Why am I so against spending, you ask?

Well, I’m not.

Here, we are focusing on the portion that you’ve managed to save.

Without savings, there’s nothing. There can be no talk about an investment corpus, if there are no savings. Something cannot grow out of nothing. For your money to grow, a base corpus needs to exist first.

Then, your basic corpus needs a growth strategy.

If you’ve chalked out your strategy already, great, go ahead and implement it.

You might find, that the implemetation opportunities you thought about are not there yet.

Appropriately, your corpus will wait for these opportunities in a safe money market fund. Here, it is totally fine to accept a low return as long as you are liquid when the opportunity comes. There is no point blocking your money in lieu of a slightly higher return, only to be illiquid when your investment opportunity comes along. Thus, you’ve used your barrier to park your funds. Well done!

Primarily, this barrier analogy is for these who don’t have a strategy. These individuals leave themselves open to be swept away into spending all their money. That’s why such individuals need a barrier.

An online 7-day lock-in fixed deposit can be a barrier.

A stingy spouse can be a barrier.

Use your imagination, people, and you’ll come up with a (safe) barrier. All the best! 🙂