Prediction is not pivotal here.
We’re getting psychology and strategy right.
We want winning marketplay, right?
Prediction is for losing marketplay. Prediction might be wrong. That’s when strategy and psychology save you from big loss. A big loss can wipe you out. Thus, dependence upon sheer prediction brings a wipe-out into play. That’s why, prediction is almost always relegated to the bottom rank when one talks about winning marketplay.
We’ll travel with a hint of prediction, though. Just a hint. Doesn’t suffice for losing yet.
For entry purposes. Only.
Even this hint of prediction is bias-giving, though. Once we enter, we need to quickly lose the bias. Yeah, once we enter, we only react to what we see.
Our system has an edge. It helps us choose market direction. After that, psychology and strategy take over.
Meaning, after we’ve entered, there’s no more prediction in play.
So what’s in play then?
The raw trade.
At this point, all your mental strength comes into play.
Oh, and your strategy.
You do have a strategy, right?
As in, if x happens, they y, and if a happens then b.
You need a stoploss too.
You don’t have to show it. It can be mental, provided you don’t fool yourself into not using it when the time comes.
You won’t execute your stop.
Again and again.
Till you teach yourself how to.
Till you lose big. And are still left standing. To want to enter again.
Learning to take a small hit, again and again and again – that’s winning marketplay. Requires huge psychological strength. You acquire this. You don’t have to be born with it.
Now comes another punchline.
That profit-sapling just emerging…see it? You will not nip it in the bud.
You’ll still do it.
You’ll nip it in the bud.
Again and again.
Till you teach yourself not to.
It’s not easy.
95%+ of all market players continue to nip profits in the bud all their lives.
To allow the sapling to grow into a tree is the most difficult of all market lessons. Learning to let profits run is winning market play.
To want more profits, you have to risk some of your current profits.
No more risk, no more gain.
You want to quickly exit and post that 22% gain on your Excel sheet. Sure. Why can’t you let it grow into an 82% gain? God alone knows. That’s how the cookie crumbles. You nip the opportunity to make that 82%.
What’s with 82?
Just a random number.
Am trying to get a point across. There’s a run happening. In a direction. It’s crossing +22%. Fast. Momentum could see it to +102%, to then backtrack and settle at +82%. It’s a probable scenario.
Anyways, there are some smarties that risk 12 of the 22% and stay in the trade. Soon the 22 can even go beyond 82. Lets say it does. What do you do?
You let it travel. Momentum is to be allowed free leeway, till it halts. Let’s say it halts at 102. You say to yourself that the winds might change if 102 goes back to 82, and tell your broker to exit if 82 is hit intraday.
That and that alone is the proper way to exit a winning trade. You exit it with the taste of loss. You let the market throw you out. For all you know, the market might be in the mood for 152. You want to give the trade that chance. Thus, a momentum target exit while the move is still on would be less lucrative for you in the long run, or so I think.
Statistics are defined by big wins. These matter. Big-time. Allow them to happen. Again and again and again.
Now add position-sizing into your strategy. The ideology of position-sizing has been discovered and fantastically developed by Dr. Van Tharp.
In a nutshell, position-sizing means that an increasing trading corpus due to winning should result in an increasing level risked. Also, correspondingly, a decreasing trading corpus due to losing should result in a decreasing level risked.
With position-sizing added to your arsenal, no one will be able to hinder your progress.
Psychological strength that comes from experiencing first-hand and digesting learning from varied market scenarios, coupled with a stoploss/profitrun position-sizing strategy – that’s a winning combination.
Wishing you happy and lucrative trading!