I like to trade without a bias.
Lack of bias means freedom…
… freedom to think independently…
… not falling prey to another person’s opinion…
… which then allows you to listen to your system…
… trade identification…
That’s it, move on to the next trade.
News gives me a bias.
You know what else gives me a bias?
I don’t wish to look at fundamentals.
If my eyes are seeing a setup in the EuroDollar, I would like to take it without the nagging thought of “what will happen if Scotland says NO or YES”.
I don’t want to care about inflation numbers, or job figures, or industrial output or what have you.
I mean…can I just …do it?
Meaning, can I just do away with fundamentals, and focus on technicals only, which is my area of specialization?
Sometimes, I get a little unsure.
I start looking around.
How are others doing it? The experts, that is.
My uncertainty gets fanned a little more, when I see experts not really ignoring fundamentals, even though they might be specialized in technicals. Hmmmm. I’m still not happy looking into fundamentals. I mean, why should I take time-out from my strong suit, and devote it to my very weak suit?
No, I decide. I’m really not going to look at fundamentals.
What’s the worst that could happen?
Let me just see if the worst that could happen is bearable.
Ok…I ID a trade…demarcate a setup…and the trade goes against me because of the announcement of some number in the afternoon. People looking at fundamentals would have waited for the announcement of the number and then traded. Fine.
In the world of trading, it is always good to have the worst-case scenario unwrapped and right before your eyes to see what it really means.
You know, I can take this.
Would you like to know why?
Firstly, I would like you to understand that we are looking at large sample-sizes here. Any sensible reasoning would only apply to large sample-sizes.
Over the long run, and over many, many trades, Mrs.Market will go either way after an announcement of a fundamental number with a chance of roughly 50:50.
If this is true, it is very good news for me, good enough to just kick fundamentals out of the equation.
At times, the market reacts as per the crowd’s anticipation.
At other times, it reacts in the opposite fashion.
I assume that the ratio of the above two directions taken by Mrs. Market over a very large sample-size would be 50:50.
I think my assumption is correct. I don’t want to go through the labour of proving it mathematically.
Ok, let’s assume that my assumption is correct. I then kick fundamentals, and go about my work while relying on my strong-suit, i.e. technicals. This trajectory will very probably have a happy ending.
Now let’s assume that my assumption is wrong.
What saves my day?
Technicals very often give setups that factor in crowd behaviour and crowd anticipation of market direction.
Technical setups get one into the build-up to an announcement.
More often than not, one is already in the trade, in the correct direction, enjoying the build-up to an announcement without even knowing that the announcement is coming, if one is not following fundamentals.
Technicals can actually do this for you. I’ve seen them do it. I mean, the GBPUSD has been giving short setups during the entire 1000 pip run-down recently. To have availed such a setup, people haven’t needed to know that a referendum is coming. All they’ve needed to do is to take the trade once they see the setup.
Actually, that’s it. I don’t need more.
I don’t need to reason anymore with myself. Everything is here.
I think I can let go of fundamentals safely.
Even this trajectory should have a happy ending.