Where do you want to be?

Where do I want to be?

Do I want to look at a stock price and know where things stand with the stock in question?

Yes.

That’s where I want to be.

It’s not going to come for free. 

What’s will it take?

Looking at the stock…

…for an year or two. 

That’s what it will take. 

How boring, you say?

Sure.

When stock market investing seems boring…

…that’s when you’re doing it right.

Excitement and roller-coaster rides are for video-game pleasure, and for making losses.

Money is made when it’s outright boring out there. 

Where do you want to be?

In the money?

I thought so. 

Then, please get used to boring and don’t ever complain again that things are boring.

How does one position oneself in such a manner that one studies a stock for an year or two. 

Hmmm.

Let’s put some skin in the game.

I know, this phrase is becoming more and more popular, what with Nicholas Taleb and all. 

Yeah, we are picking up stock. 

What stock?

The one we wish to observe for an year or two.

Why pick it up? Why not just observe it?

You won’t. You’ll let it go.

Why?

Because it’s not yours. 

So we pick up the stock? What’s the point of observing if we’re picking it up now?

Well, we’re picking up a minute quantity – one quantum – now. That gets our skin into the game. Then we observe, and observe. Anytime there’s shareholder-friendly action by the management, we pick up more, another quantum. We keep picking up, quantum by quantum. Soon, while we’ve kept picking up, we’ve observed the stock for so long, that now, one look at the stock price tells us what kind of margin of safety we are getting in the stock at this point. 

Wow.

Now, future entries become seamless. One look and we have a yes or no decision. Isn’t that wonderful? 

Absolutely.

That’s where we want to be.

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It has to be a Dunk

When I shoot…

… it has to be a dunk.

If I’m not getting a dunk in…

… I’m not shooting.

What are the implications?

Imagine only taking market dunks for multiple decades in a row.

Where do you think that’s going to leave you?

Most of the time, though, one’s not shooting.

That’s because, most of the time, dunk trajectoires are not available.

When one is not shooting, does it become boring?

Only if you let it.

Yeah, just don’t let it.

No action is a good thing.

It saves resources.

Then, when opportunity is available, one might get twenty dunk days in a row.

Things can get so active, that one wants activity to normalize again, if not stop for a while.

Actually, not a challenge.

I’ll tell you what is a challenge…

… for me.

Dunk opportunity…

… and travel.

I don’t like this combination.

How do I deal with it?

First up, what don’t I like about it?

Distraction.

Not doing full justice to the trip.

Not doing full justice to the investing opportunity either, as in distracted due diligence.

Hmmm.

What do we do here?

Sure, you’ll argue, today one carries one’s terminal where one goes.

Does one also carry one’s zone, you know, the magical frame of mind, from within which one takes magic decisions?

Very probably not.

When one takes an investment decision, is it not better to be in this magical zone?

Therefore, unless the opportunity is just too pressing, such that it makes me open my terminal even during travel, …

…, yeah, my terminal mostly stays shut when I’m on the move, …

…, because then it’s time to do other things. Yayyyyy!

😀

Nature of the Beast

Stocks…

…crash.

It’s the nature of the beast.

Stocks also multiply.

For stocks to multiply, one needs to do something.

What is that something?

One needs to buy stocks when they crash.

Let me give you an example. 

Let’s assume markets are on a high, and there’s euphoria.

Excel Propionics is cruising at a 1000.

The prevailing euphoria seeps into your brain, and you buy Propionics at a 1000.

For Propionics to multiply 10 times in your lifetime, it will now need to reach 10,000.

Likely? Wait.

Cut to now.

Stocks are crashing. 

The same stock, Excel Propionics, now crawls at 450.

You have studied it. 

It’s debt-free.

Positive cash-flow.

Ratios are good.

Numbers are double-digit.

Leverage is low.

Management is shareholder-friendly. 

You start buying at 450. 

By the time the crash is through, you have bought many times, and your buying average is 333.

For Propionics to multiply 10 times in your lifetime, it will now need to rise to 3330.

Which event is more likely to happen?

Just answer intuitively.

Of course, the second scenario is more likely to play out than the first one. In the second scenario, Propionics will need to peak 3 times lower.

Simple?

No!

Try buying in a crash.

You are shaken up. 

There’s so much pessimism going around.

Rumours, stories, whatsapps, opinions. The whole world has become an authority on where this market is going to go, and you are dying from inside.

What’s killing you?

The hiding that your existing portfolio is taking, that’s what’s killing you.

Are you liquid?

No?

Very bad. 

Why aren’t you liquid?

Create this circumstance for yourself.

Be liquid.

Optimally, be liquid for life. 

Then, you will look forward to a crash, because that’s when you will use your liquidity copiously, to buy quality stocks, or to improve the buying averages of the already existing quality stocks in your folio. 

How do you get liquid for life?

You employ the small entry quantum strategy.

Yes, that’s about right. 

We’ve been speaking about this strategy in this space for the last two years.

Read up!

🙂

Happy Eighth Birthday, Magic Bull!

Hey,

Today, we turn eight.

This is an extreme time.

Extraordinary moves have become normal.

How do we react to a world full of upheavals?

Does anyone have a satisfactory response?

We don’t know, and time will tell if our responses are correct.

However, we do know, that we possess common sense…

…, and we are going to hold on to it for all our life’s worth.

It has not come for free.

It has been earned after making costly mistakes.

It is very valuable.

It is going to see us through.

The topsiness and the turvyness is good for us.

It will set up opportunities.

We are only going to grab opportunities.

When there’s no opportunity, we do nothing.

We have learnt to do nothing.

Doing nothing actually means no entry.

We use this time to do due diligence for the future, when entry is allowed as per our entry criteria.

Doing nothing is a steady part of our repertoire.

However, when opportunity comes, we are going to let go of all fear, and we are going to pull the trigger.

We know how to pull the trigger.

We are not afraid.

Why?

We are debt-free.

Our basic incomes are in place.

Our families are taken care of.

Without that, we don’t move.

We invest with surplus.

We implement a small entry quantum strategy.

We enter again and again and again, upon opportunity.

Because of our small entry quantum, we are liquid for life.

Crash?

Bring it on.

We’ll keep going in, small entry quantum upon small entry quantum.

Don’t forget, we have rendered ourselves liquid for life.

And, we’ve got stamina!

Happy eighth birthday, Magic Bull!

Robotic Stock Selection Anyone?

No…

…thank you…

…is it?

Sure, stockscreens.

We use them all the time. 

A stock screen is a robot.

So why am I still saying no thank you?

I use stockscreens day in and day out.

I use them for trade selection, and I use them for long-term stock selection.

However,…

…(here comes the hammer),…

…the final say is mine. 

I’d like the human touch to answer yes or no.

Also, out of say a hundred selections, I can still say no to all.

And, if something catches my eye, I can dig deeper. 

I’d like to keep all these things in my hand.

I’d like my market approach to be with open eyes and usage of common-sense.

So where are we exactly?

Somewhere between one-fourth and half robotic.

That suits us. 

We save hours of sweat labour.

After sweat labour has done its work, we start applying our minds. 

We take over where the robot has left off.

Uff, sometimes it’s so boring, that…

…you find yourselves asking,…

…was that it?

Aha. 

Need I remind you, that this is very good indeed?

You want your strategy to become to streamlined, that it’s outright sheer damn boring. 

That’s exactly when the strategy will perform.

Thrill-seekers have a video-game experience of the markets and then burn out. 

You will go on and on with your boring strategy. 

What does this mean for your time?

You’ve got something streamlined, so you’ve got time on your hands. 

Twiddle your thumbs, or do something new. 

I’ll take new. 

I’d go for another strategy. 

Approach another market. 

Anything that attracts you. 

Develop something in that market. 

Make sure there’s no overlap between your markets. 

Why?

When you wind up the day’s input for a market, you want to be exactly there, i.e. wound up with that market. 

Entering the other market is something fresh for you. 

You look forward to it. 

Why exactly?

Because of no overlap with something you’re done with for the day. 

Slowly, get a few strategies going, such that your working day is taken care of. 

This is how you proceed with a market.

Enter-do-exit. Done.

Next market.

Enter-do-exit. Done.

And next market. 

Once you’re done with a market for the day, only look at it the next day. 

This way you’ll stay fresh, and your time and energy won’t be exhausted by hourly nitty-gritties. 

Once done with all your markets for the day, do other stuff in life. 

Non-market stuff.

Like cultivation of hobbies, spending family-time, sport, meditation, chanting, reading, what have you. 

Do full justice to life. 

This is Why Your Blockbuster Gain Story is going to Happen

You’re learning to sit. 

You buy with margin of safety. 

You buy in small quanta,…

…and that’s why you’re always liquid,…

…to avail any opportunity that arises. 

Yeah, there’s nothing impeding your liquidity…

…because you’ve kept yourself virus-free, i.e. debt-free. 

You only buy quality…

…that’s going to be around for a long, long while,…

…because you don’t sell for a long, long while. 

You don’t listen to what the grapevine is saying…

…because of the conviction and strength of your own research and opinion.

Yes, you regularly go against the crowd. 

You either buy into debt-free-ness, or into managable debt that spurts growth. 

Your input into the market doesn’t affect your daily life, leaving you tension-free to address your non-market world and thrive in it,…

…and that is why,…

…for all the above reasons,…

…your blockbuster gain story is going to happen,…

…and what’s more,…

…you are also enjoying the ride leading up to it.