Where do you want to be?

Where do I want to be?

Do I want to look at a stock price and know where things stand with the stock in question?

Yes.

That’s where I want to be.

It’s not going to come for free. 

What’s will it take?

Looking at the stock…

…for an year or two. 

That’s what it will take. 

How boring, you say?

Sure.

When stock market investing seems boring…

…that’s when you’re doing it right.

Excitement and roller-coaster rides are for video-game pleasure, and for making losses.

Money is made when it’s outright boring out there. 

Where do you want to be?

In the money?

I thought so. 

Then, please get used to boring and don’t ever complain again that things are boring.

How does one position oneself in such a manner that one studies a stock for an year or two. 

Hmmm.

Let’s put some skin in the game.

I know, this phrase is becoming more and more popular, what with Nicholas Taleb and all. 

Yeah, we are picking up stock. 

What stock?

The one we wish to observe for an year or two.

Why pick it up? Why not just observe it?

You won’t. You’ll let it go.

Why?

Because it’s not yours. 

So we pick up the stock? What’s the point of observing if we’re picking it up now?

Well, we’re picking up a minute quantity – one quantum – now. That gets our skin into the game. Then we observe, and observe. Anytime there’s shareholder-friendly action by the management, we pick up more, another quantum. We keep picking up, quantum by quantum. Soon, while we’ve kept picking up, we’ve observed the stock for so long, that now, one look at the stock price tells us what kind of margin of safety we are getting in the stock at this point. 

Wow.

Now, future entries become seamless. One look and we have a yes or no decision. Isn’t that wonderful? 

Absolutely.

That’s where we want to be.

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It has to be a Dunk

When I shoot…

… it has to be a dunk.

If I’m not getting a dunk in…

… I’m not shooting.

What are the implications?

Imagine only taking market dunks for multiple decades in a row.

Where do you think that’s going to leave you?

Most of the time, though, one’s not shooting.

That’s because, most of the time, dunk trajectoires are not available.

When one is not shooting, does it become boring?

Only if you let it.

Yeah, just don’t let it.

No action is a good thing.

It saves resources.

Then, when opportunity is available, one might get twenty dunk days in a row.

Things can get so active, that one wants activity to normalize again, if not stop for a while.

Actually, not a challenge.

I’ll tell you what is a challenge…

… for me.

Dunk opportunity…

… and travel.

I don’t like this combination.

How do I deal with it?

First up, what don’t I like about it?

Distraction.

Not doing full justice to the trip.

Not doing full justice to the investing opportunity either, as in distracted due diligence.

Hmmm.

What do we do here?

Sure, you’ll argue, today one carries one’s terminal where one goes.

Does one also carry one’s zone, you know, the magical frame of mind, from within which one takes magic decisions?

Very probably not.

When one takes an investment decision, is it not better to be in this magical zone?

Therefore, unless the opportunity is just too pressing, such that it makes me open my terminal even during travel, …

…, yeah, my terminal mostly stays shut when I’m on the move, …

…, because then it’s time to do other things. Yayyyyy!

😀

Nature of the Beast

Stocks…

…crash.

It’s the nature of the beast.

Stocks also multiply.

For stocks to multiply, one needs to do something.

What is that something?

One needs to buy stocks when they crash.

Let me give you an example. 

Let’s assume markets are on a high, and there’s euphoria.

Excel Propionics is cruising at a 1000.

The prevailing euphoria seeps into your brain, and you buy Propionics at a 1000.

For Propionics to multiply 10 times in your lifetime, it will now need to reach 10,000.

Likely? Wait.

Cut to now.

Stocks are crashing. 

The same stock, Excel Propionics, now crawls at 450.

You have studied it. 

It’s debt-free.

Positive cash-flow.

Ratios are good.

Numbers are double-digit.

Leverage is low.

Management is shareholder-friendly. 

You start buying at 450. 

By the time the crash is through, you have bought many times, and your buying average is 333.

For Propionics to multiply 10 times in your lifetime, it will now need to rise to 3330.

Which event is more likely to happen?

Just answer intuitively.

Of course, the second scenario is more likely to play out than the first one. In the second scenario, Propionics will need to peak 3 times lower.

Simple?

No!

Try buying in a crash.

You are shaken up. 

There’s so much pessimism going around.

Rumours, stories, whatsapps, opinions. The whole world has become an authority on where this market is going to go, and you are dying from inside.

What’s killing you?

The hiding that your existing portfolio is taking, that’s what’s killing you.

Are you liquid?

No?

Very bad. 

Why aren’t you liquid?

Create this circumstance for yourself.

Be liquid.

Optimally, be liquid for life. 

Then, you will look forward to a crash, because that’s when you will use your liquidity copiously, to buy quality stocks, or to improve the buying averages of the already existing quality stocks in your folio. 

How do you get liquid for life?

You employ the small entry quantum strategy.

Yes, that’s about right. 

We’ve been speaking about this strategy in this space for the last two years.

Read up!

🙂

Happy Eighth Birthday, Magic Bull!

Hey,

Today, we turn eight.

This is an extreme time.

Extraordinary moves have become normal.

How do we react to a world full of upheavals?

Does anyone have a satisfactory response?

We don’t know, and time will tell if our responses are correct.

However, we do know, that we possess common sense…

…, and we are going to hold on to it for all our life’s worth.

It has not come for free.

It has been earned after making costly mistakes.

It is very valuable.

It is going to see us through.

The topsiness and the turvyness is good for us.

It will set up opportunities.

We are only going to grab opportunities.

When there’s no opportunity, we do nothing.

We have learnt to do nothing.

Doing nothing actually means no entry.

We use this time to do due diligence for the future, when entry is allowed as per our entry criteria.

Doing nothing is a steady part of our repertoire.

However, when opportunity comes, we are going to let go of all fear, and we are going to pull the trigger.

We know how to pull the trigger.

We are not afraid.

Why?

We are debt-free.

Our basic incomes are in place.

Our families are taken care of.

Without that, we don’t move.

We invest with surplus.

We implement a small entry quantum strategy.

We enter again and again and again, upon opportunity.

Because of our small entry quantum, we are liquid for life.

Crash?

Bring it on.

We’ll keep going in, small entry quantum upon small entry quantum.

Don’t forget, we have rendered ourselves liquid for life.

And, we’ve got stamina!

Happy eighth birthday, Magic Bull!

Nath on Trading – V – Make that a Hundred

81). Paper trading has limited value.

82). That’s because money on the line activates your emotions.

83). Is there a holy grail? No. Stop looking for it.

84). Small edges taken to the nth – that’s what cuts it.

85). Most advisories make more money advising and less money trading.

86). Many advisories ignore sheer basics such as risk : reward.

87). Advisories are after commission and management fees rather than your long-term benefit.

88). If you’re lookig for an advisory, look hard, and don’t be afraid to keep rejecting till you find someone who knows the game and is not greedy.

89). Everything is out there, for you, for the taking, on the internet.

90). Most of this everything is free, if you just make that extra effort to get it.

91). Disclosure laws are so strict, that you can get into the un*erp*nts of a management today, literally at the speed of thought.

92). Thus, to play the market, any market, all you need is funds, due diligence and a device.

93). Due diligence gives you confidence to hold the line.

94). Funds need to be saved first. What goes into trading is that portion of your savings which you are not going to need – at all, at best.

95). Your device needs to become a seamless extension of you. Work on your device till it becomes that.

96). The best ideas are born in silence.

97). The best ideas are also the simplest in nature.

98). Sophistication is a net-net loser’s game.

99). If you’re doing it right, and if you’re not a day-trader by profession, trading takes up only a small portion of your day.

100). Life has myriads of avenues, trading being one small such aspect. Being a trader doesn’t mean losing out on life’s countless drawing boards. Trade. Fine. Live too, and live well. Do all-round justice to your opportunity.

Nath on Trading – IV – We’ve got Stamina

61). We’re able to take many, many small losses, without flinching.

62). Only that sets us up for the big wins.

63). We don’t second guess our stops.

64). In fact, we want the stop to hit. As in, hit me, if you’ve got the *****.

65). When the trade moves in our direction, we let it. We’re doing other stuff.

66). When the trade moves against us, we let it. We’re doing other stuff.

67). That’s because we fully understand the function of our stop. It will take us out of the market, whether in loss or in profit. It’s dynamic, you see. It moves with the market as per the definition provided by us while punching in the trade.

68). We’re not afraid that our stop could be jumped. Can happen, in a panic. Hopefully, our technicals will have placed us in the right trade direction before huge and fast moves. It comes to mind that this kind of move occured at least twice in the last six years, once with the swiss franc, and once during Brexit. If we start worrying about such one-offs, we won’t trade at all. 

69). We look at the technicals, and we listen to what they’re saying. The trend is our friend. We trade with the trend, either on fresh highs (fresh lows) or on pullbacks, depending upon the conditions.

70). This is trading, so I personally don’t look at fundamentals. However, cook your curry the way you like it.

71). We might zero into tradable underlyings with screens or searches, but…

72). …we eyeball into final trade selection.

73). Yes, the chart needs to look and feel just right. All but the one tradable entity are rejected by the look and feel of the chart. The one remaining is the one we trade. If none remains, we don’t trade. 

74). Price is king. We’re into price action.

75). Indicators only indicate. Price does the talking.

76). What the price is saying will reflect in the indicator, but with a time-lag.

77). Do we want this time-lag? I don’t.

78). Thus, price action it is, for me. However, everyone is looking at the same price.

79). Therefore, we need to think slightly out of the box, to make money.

80). Edge + out of the box thinking + stamina nails it.

 

 

 

 

Nath on Trading – III – Meat in the Middle

41). If it’s high, it could go higher.

42). If it’s low, it could go lower.

43). Market forces tire the trader.

44). Engulfment in loss and loss-freeze suck one out.

45). That’s exactly why we’re not going to let that happen. You know how. (Hint : stops).

46). Trade selection is the least of one’s problems. It’s no biggie.

47). Trade management separates winners from losers.

48). Proper trade exits are the icing on the cake.

49). Longs exiting in a rising market – hmmm – really?

50). Shorts exiting in a falling market – hmmm – really?

51). What’s that other fellow trading? Who cares?

52). How’s that other fellow doing? You got it. Who cares?

53). The only entity stopping you from outperformance – is you.

54). All your demons – are in you.

55). They’ll slowly come out, over the years, one by one, or some now, some later. Hopefully sooner than later.

56). Let them emerge, show their antics, and disappear forever. Make sure you bid them goodbye.

57). That’s why, you’re trading small, right, till your demons have emerged, created havoc, and then disappeared, forever?

58). You’ll feel it from inside, when it’s the right time to scale up. Develop this dialogue with yourself. A clear voice emerging from within can carry great advice.

59). Sure, you’re looking at trade signals, and sticking to trade rules. However, the voice from within is the net resultant per saldo vector of your entire trading experience. It carries weight.

60). Mostly, it doesn’t come. Clear the way for this voice to make itself heard when you need to listen to what it has to say. Trading, at first, is a bunch of rules. Later, trading becomes an art.