The Tipping Point

What is it about tips?

Why do they have that lure? That magnetic effect? That greed-invoking element? That goosebumps-causing energy?

Tips thrive in any market. 

They are given at the drop of a hat. 

The giver feels he or she is doing a favour. The receiver feels obliged. 

What has led to the giver feeling complaecent that he or she has something one his or her hands?

The giver was a receiver, a very short time ago. 

He or she got sucked …

… into the story. 

The story is tempting. 

It builds upon many half-truths and binds them together in such a presentable manner, that one’s defences, if any, are just maimed. 

In comes the tip. 

Off goes the mind, counting the unmade bucks.

In goes the money. 

Mostly, it doesn’t materialize. 

Why?

Tips do the rounds as short-cuts in people’s half-baked minds. 

A short-cut to wealth. 

The 99% here don’t want to do the spade work. They don’t want to get their hands dirty. They want spectacular returns, though, and they want them now. 

That’s the short-circuit. 

Investing is about doing lots of research. You dig. And then some more. It’s about patience. You wait. And then some more. It’s about having a sorted mind, and then going in. It’s a full-time occupation, unless you streamline it so well, that it then goes hand in hand with your other daily activities, and drops into the background like a mantra that keeps resonating with your breath. 

Does one become a brain-surgeon in a few hours?

Do you ask the brain-surgeon to teach you brain surgery in a day?

NO. 

It takes time, study, effort, will-power, finances, mindset, etc. etc. to become a brain-surgeon. 

It takes a lot of similar things to become a successful investor. 

You make yourself into one. 

It’s your effort. 

You don’t become one following tips.

People ask for tips. Daily. It’s a disease. I’m scarcely able to deal with it. I just evade. 

Folks, those who ask for tips are expecting to be made a brain-surgeon in one day. Not happening. It’s a short-circuited way of thinking. Don’t ask for tips. Invest on your own. Do the study. Invest the time and effort. Make mistakes. Become fully baked.

Go for it. 

The whole nine yards. 

Yeah, the whole hog. 

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I know a guy who knows another guy who knows this guy…

Well, congratulations.

So you’re well connected.

You probably play golf with the CEO of Big Balls Incorporated.

We’re not even going into how you wangled the slot.

You probably feel, that because of your connectedness, you can get away with anything in life.

Well, almost anything.

That’s the bottom-line.

You can get away with almost anything in life.

Here are two areas where your connectivity counts jack. As in El Zero. Nadda.

One is before the Almighty (presuming that God exists). Buying a slot with God using connections isn’t gonna cut it with the big guy. You can’t buy personal time with deities using money and / or connections, even if you think you can. Also, that “bought” time, when you shoved everyone else out of line, well, that time’s not going to make your life any better, or richer. You’ve just established yourself as someone who shoves others out of line using connections….that’s how your deity is going to view your performance. So, what you’re going to understand from this space is that before deities – the Almighty – God – the Metaphysical – or whatever you might want to call what I’m talking about, connections don’t work. You only end up scoring negative in your deity’s books.

Which brings us to the more relevant matter – where else do connections not work?

In the marketplace of course, my friend.

Don’t believe me? Fine, find it out for yourself, the hard way. Or, read on.

You see, in the marketplace, insiders have an agenda. All insiders. They have an agenda.

That agenda is personal. It includes them. It doesn’t include you … … if you’re not connected to the insider. Once you are, and you use that connection to fish for “lucrative” inside information, that’s where the insider’s agenda starts to include you. The information you get is as per the agenda of the insider. If a promoter wishes to off-load huge quantities of stock, you will be told that the stock’s a good buy, because blah-blah-blah-blah-blah. On the other hand, if the promoter wishes to buy back large quantities of stock, because of attractive valuations, you’ll be told to sell the stock owing to tricky prospects in the future. You are not getting quality information when you fish for tips. You’ll only find yourself getting trapped if you follow insider tips.

There are good insiders too … is that what you are saying? Ok, fine, some insiders are good human beings. They are not vicious, and they wish you well. They might even want to do you a favour, wishing that you make some money from the information they are letting out. All true. Question is, does it really work?

No.

Why?

You see, an insider never functions alone. When a company experiences a turnaround or a great quarter comes along with excellent earnings, white-collared people connected to the functioning of the company obviously know this, and they leak this information out (for a price) to smart researchers and investors. These smarties (along with their entire intimate circle of connectivity) buy into the company’s prospects. The money moved is called smart money. Smart money registers / reflects on the traders’ charts. The scrip might show a bounce-back from a low with huge volume, or a resistance might be broken, or a new high could even be made (all coupled with large volume). Traders latch on. Price movers higher. All this is happening before the CEO has announced quarterly results, mind you. Finally, a few days before the results, the corresponding results-file lands on the CEO’s desk. He or she congratulates his or her staff on the spectacular performance, and over a round of golf, the information is shared with you. The CEO is obviously thinking that the market is going to react positively to the earnings surprise that’s going to be announced.

Well, the earnings are not going to be a surprise. The market already knows, and earnings have thus already been factored into the price, before results are announced. Announcement time is generally selling time for traders, who tend to sell all stock upon the first spike after announcement. With no more buying pressure (since traders are out of the scrip), the inflated scrip tanks despite the good news, leaving you stuck with a peak-price buy. Well done, well done indeed.

See, that’s why. Don’t listen to insiders, even if they mean well.

In the marketplace, you really are on your own. Isn’t that exciting? As in challenging?

All the best, my friend. Learn to rely on your own judgement.