Last month, I scrapped my market-play system.
Systems are made to be scrapped later.
One can always come up with a new system.
I love working on a new system.
What I want to talk to you about is why I scrapped my last system.
I found four accounting frauds, as I did my market research, all online.
You see, my last system worked well with honest accounting.
It had no answer to accounting frauds.
Also, I got disillusioned.
Are we a nation of frauds?
How does one deal with a nation of frauds?
More importantly, how does one play such a nation?
Does one invest in it? Or, does one sheer trade it?
Questions, questions and more questions. These encircle my mind as I work to put my new system together.
I am in no hurry to come up with an answer. A country like India deserves a befitting answer, and that it will get, even if the sky comes down on me while I put my system together.
Slowly, I started to think. How many systems had I scrapped before?
Hmmm, four or five, give or take one or two.
I have an uncompromising market rule of going fully liquid when I scrap a system.
Full liquidity is a tension-tree state. It allows one to think freely and in an unbiased manner. Being invested during volatility impedes one’s ability to think clearly and put a new system together.
Ok, so what answer would my new system have towards fraud?
All along, it was very clear to me that future market activity would be in India itself. Where else does one get such volatility? I am learning to embrace volatility. It is the trader’s best friend.
Right, so, what’s the answer to fraud?
Trading oriented market play – good. Not much investing, really. First thoughts that come to mind.
Buying above supports. Selling below resistances. Only buying above highs in rare cases, and trailing such buys with strict stops. Similarly , only selling below lows in even rarer cases, and again, trailing such sells with strict stops.
Trading light at all times.
Fully deploying the bulk of one’s corpus into secure market avenues like bonds and arbitrage. You see, bonds in India are not toxic. Well, not yet, and with hawks like the RBI and SEBI watching over us, it might take a while before they turn toxic. If and when they do start turning toxic, we’ll be getting out of them, there’s no doubt about that. Till they’re clean, we want their excellent returns, especially as interest rates head downwards. In India, one can get out of bond mutual funds within 24 hrs, with a penalty of a maximum of 1 % of the amount invested. Bearable. The top bond funds have yielded about 13 – 15% over the last 12 months. So, that 1% penalty is fully digestible, believe me.
With the bulk of one’s returns coming from secure avenues, small amounts can be traded. Trade entries are to be made when the odds are really in one’s favour. When risk is high, entry is to be refrained from. A pure and simple answer to fraud? Yes!
You see, after a certain drop, the price has discounted all fraud and then some. That’s one’s entry price for the long side. On the short side, after a phenomenal rise, there comes a price which no amount of goodness in a company can justify and then some. That’s the price we short the company at.
Of course it’s all easier said than done, but at least one thing’s sorted. My outlook has changed. Earlier, I used to fearlessly buy above highs and short below lows. I am going to be more cautious about that now. With fraud in the equation, I want the odds in my favour at all times.
These are the thoughts going on in my mind just now. Talking about them helps them get organized.
You don’t have to listen to my stuff.
I’m quite happy talking to the wall.
Once these words leave me, there’s more space in my system – a kind of a vacuum.
A vacuum attracts flow from elsewhere.
What kind of a flow will my vacuum attract?
Answers will flow in from the ether.
Answers to my burning questions.