Market moves require trigerrs.
In the absence of these, lack-lustre activity results…
…giving rise to illogical short-term trading ranges, for example.
Come a trigger, a move starts, or continues, or even ends, if the trigger is adverse.
What kind of triggers lie up ahead?
Yeah, Mr. President is going go keep US markets on a high till then, and that will translate over to world markets.
Corona cases receding?
Trigger on the upside.
Corona recoveries increasing?
Yes. Reiterates the above.
Vaccine announcement for release expected till December ’20?
Vaccine starts showing good results?
Reiterates the above.
Small- and mid-cap buying by institutions to the tune of 28k Cr till the government deadline of January 31, ’20?
That’s a solid one.
This one is going to hold the back-end of the market (small- and mid-caps) perked up and reaching for January ’18 highs.
That’s five triggers back to back.
Any down-triggers in this time-frame?
…the picture till January 31, ’20 seems to be quite clear, actually.
Of course one might be wrong, and the model might break down.
That’s when we’ll just change the model.
However, till the model breaks down, one follows a charted roadmap which is already panning out.
Where does that leave you?
Assuming this model hits, there would be frenzied buying in small- and mid-caps just before the January 31, ’20 deadline.
Many MF Houses have announced their cautious and unpanicking approach towards picking up small- and mid-caps.
Come January, some players will not have picked up enough.
If the authorities don’t extend the deadline, these very institutions will make a beeline for such underlyings.
Government fellows will have a bit of a guilty conscience because of the mayhem they caused in this segment in January ’18, ordering the ad-hoc reshuffle of MFs.
To make things good again for affected parties, they might even allow such a frenzy to happen by not extending the deadline…
…and that’s exactly what we want.
We are waiting patiently for complete euphoria to set in, to sell those inhabitants of our folios, which we don’t wish to hold anymore.
As per this model, this could happen in January.
If It doesn’t, and if the model breaks down, that’s fine too, we’ll just wait for another time and high.
Winning in the markets is mainly about patience and discipline.