Happening…or not happening?

Is that the question?

Hmmmm. 

Valid question. 

On any particular day, we are confronted with this question. Multiple times. 

Life itself throws this question at us often, at pivot-points or crossroads. 

Well, why should the markets be left behind? You guessed it. They portray this behaviour…also. 

Take the cmp of an underlying. 

Is it crossing resistance? Breaking support? Forming a pivot? Peaking? Bottoming? What have you. 

Is whatever’s happening happening or not happening?

What do you do?

Aha. Got you there. Who said anything about doing something? The question about doing something is a wrong question. 

However, it becomes a practical question, because, well, who has patience today?

Yeah, who’s willing to wait and watch, right?

So, in all practicality, what do you do?

First you try not to ask the question. You just observe. 

Then you get jumpy, and do ask the question, simultaneously answering it by telling yourself to wait and watch. 

Next you’re seen egging the markets on for an outcome. 

That’s not good. 

Markets are not going to behave as per your wishes. 

Ok, so here’s the game-changer. 

Change your activity. 

Yes, do something else. 

Put your system on auto-pilot, and engage your mind elsewhere. 

Like I’m writing this article here. 

What’s happening in the backdrop?

My USDINR trade is going nowhere. 

Couldn’t catch a decent portion of the move on the GBP breakout, and now I can’t seem to get a new trade triggered.

My stock-screener refuses to find me a stock in the agri-sector which is to my liking.

My iPad’s gone all wonky and is acting pricy about photo and music syncs. 

Family-health-insurance-premium due…

… got to get that nomination going on my demat…

… AC gas leak…

… document sorting overdue…

… and so on and so forth. 

Meanwhile, I write this article. 

I’m at peace. Writing relaxes me. It benefits the reader too. It’ll live on after me. It is positivity in action. It gives me a sense of purpose. I forget about all the things that are happening and / or not happening. 

That’s what you are going to do. You are going to find an activity that takes you away, to another plane, for just a while, while your other stuff is still undecided. 

There are some things, though, that one needs to make happen. Sometimes one needs to keep pushing. Non-pursuance would be like giving up. 

In this event, you keep banging your head against a wall. 

Two things are going to happen. 

Either you are going to get hurt and back off…

… or, the wall is going to break down.

Yes, I do admit, that there are some very select areas in life that where one decides to bang full-on. 

We’re not afraid. When push comes to shove, we’re all there and ready for some head-banging. 

However, wrt all the other not-so-drastic things, we’re conserving our energies and going to our happy-and-safe-place till these not-so-drastic things are yet undecided. 

Yeah, we’re happier and healthier that way. 

Advertisements

Wealth-Generators know how to Sit

Most humans don’t know how to sit. 

Most humans are not wealthy. 

If you are a wealth-generator, you’ve probably already made the connection, knowingly or unknowingly. 

You sit. 

You are focused.

You know what you are doing. 

You are confident about what you are doing. 

You don’t keep looking over your shoulder. 

You are not jumpy. 

You don’t require a daily quote. 

In fact, you’re quite happy with a monthly quote. 

You know the value of your underlying. The world cannot tell you otherwise. 

You seal one wealth-generating opportunity, and move on to the other. 

That helps you to sit on the former, while you focus on the latter…

…till you seal the latter, which is when you move on to the next one, and so on and so forth. 

Soon, you are at the pivot of many, many wealth generating ideas. 

You are surrounded by multiples. 

Some have fully matured. 

You bring them to their logical conclusion. If this is a cash-out, well it’s a cash-out. 

You move the funds resulting appropriately…

…perhaps to a new avenue…

…or perhaps to finance something big…

…be it a lifetime-requirement…

…or what have you. 

You recognise the fact that one of the main purposes of wealth is also to fulfil lifetime-requirements. 

Mere income is not able to fulfil these. 

Generated wealth is. 

You recognise that. 

You are a wealth-generator. 

You know how to sit. 

MP vs MoS : the lowdown on Trade-Entry

Margin of Safety (MoS)… 

… hmmm… 

… wasn’t that in investing? 

Well – surprise – it’s in trading too. 

You can enter a trade with MoS. 

How? 

Ok.

ID the trend. 

Wait for a minor reversal.

Let the reversal continue towards a pivot, or a support or a what have you. 

During this reversal, whenever you feel that you have considerable MoS, well – enter. 

Why shouldn’t you wait for the pivot to get touched? 

Things happen real fast at a pivot. Upon a pivot-touch, you can lose your comfort-zone even within minutes. 

Two vital things can happen at a pivot. 

Either there’s a quick bounce-back, or the pivot gets broken. 

Bounce-back means your trade is now in the money, and that you can go about managing your trade as per your trade-management rules. Wonderful. 

Pivot-break is not a worry for you. 

Why? 

Because you’ve placed your stop slightly below pivot, after the noise. 

Upon pivot-break, you get stopped out. You take the small hit and move on to your next trade. 

Eventually, things heat up. 

There is movement. 

Tops get taken out. 

Fast money can be made. 

How do you enter here? (Needless to say, for shorts, everything is to be understood reversed). 

Momentum play (MP)… 

… is the weapon of choice. 

You set up a trigger entry after a top or a resistance or a what have you, and wait for price to pierce, and for your entry to get triggered. Then you place your stop, below top or resistance or what have you. 

MP vs MoS is a matter of style. 

If you’re not comfortable changing your trading style to adapt to times, that’s fine too. Stick to one style.

If you’re conservative, stick to MoS. 

In a frenzy, however, MoS might almost never happen. 

In a frenzy, entry will be triggered exclusively through MP.

Take your pick. Adapt. Do both. Or don’t. Do one.

You call the shots. 

This is about you.

Market-maker

Manipulation. 

Recognition. 

Alignment. 

Trade. 

Spike. 

Out. 

How does one recognize manipulation? 

On the charts. 

After eyeballing many many charts, one gets a feel for it. 

Manipulated strike-points become pivot points. 

It’s a push from a fund-heavy conglomerate. Push becomes a cascade as traders join in. 

After the spike, the market-maker pulls out funds so cleverly that rates don’t fall. 

Funds are now ready for the next push. The same funds. 

Repeat. Same loop. 

Till strategy fails. 

Then, maker starts manipulating in opposite direction. 

Life’s busy for the maker. 

There’s trouble with the authorities. Ends on a compromise. Maker will step in when authorities need to prop the market. 

No maker – no market. 

Why do you think there’s always a quote to your underlying? 

Because of the maker. 

After a market has crossed critical mass, makers sit on their spikes. They roll-over on expiries, and enjoy the ride. 

Ride is not always smooth. 

Makers often get greedy and break their own rules. Functioning with no safeties, many makers get wiped out. To add to their woes, a large percentage functions on borrowed money. 

Makers have an electronic life, which loops from cellphone to terminal and back. It’s a life that’s punctuated by headaches, physical and mental. 

Don’t envy a maker. 

He or she is just doing his or her job. That’s all. 

Trade the maker.