Going Beyond Price Action

Is price action the holy grail?

You’ve rid yourself of all indicators in search of something that holds.

In forex, you’re probably not looking at volume either.

What you’re left looking at is the behaviour of price.

Price patterns, expressed in the form of candles, contain a psychology.

You are trying to understand this psychology in order to put on a winning trade.

However, everyone else is also watching the same patterns too, including the big boys.

Who are the big boys?

Institutions, banks et al.

Why are we talking about them?

They are the one’s capable of creating enough buying or selling pressure to determine the direction of price. Retail people, like you and I, are not.

That’s why.

And these same big boys know the patterns that you are looking out for, and are going to react to.

What do they do?

They tweak the patterns.

Think about it.

It’s the obvious thing to do. Stopping the public out will give them a smooth run later.

Is tweaking the patterns a biggie for them?

No.

Determining the direction of price is like winning a war.

What’s it going to take to win a small battle, like tweaking a pattern?

A fraction of one’s resources.

Where does that leave you?

If you’re looking at pure price action, you probably might not fare too well.

You have no choice but to look beyond.

What is beyond?

Truth is truth.

If the market wants to go somewhere, because of actual demand and supply dynamics, well, then it wants to go there.

It will reveal that with price action.

You won’t miss the message.

How can one overlook a very large-tailed candle, or an obvious support or resistance, for example?

As you are getting ready to act, based upon the obvious pattern you are seeing, you also observe, that most of the time, price is not behaving like the pattern is saying.

If the pattern is just too obvious, you need to go one step further and put on the trade, taking tweaked conditions into account.

Look at the chart for obvious points that the big boys might be targeting. Go beyond these points and set the levels for your entry, stop, and if it’s part of your strategy, your limit.

What have you basically done?

You have believed in the obvious price action that you have seen.

You have tried to factor in tweaking.

You have implemented your trade in a manner such that the negative effect of tweaking will just about give you entry, but the big boys will probably not be too bothered about going right up to the level of your stop, because its positioning is such.

This will fail.

Sometimes.

This will succeed…

…at other times.

Whether you make money or not will depend upon how you manage your winners.

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When Money goes on Auto

What does “doing well” mean for you?

Making money – does that mean you are doing well?

Not necessarily.

You could be making money, but in the bargain, your life could be out of balance.

In my world, that’s already a fail.

Ideally, I like to keep the market in my pocket, and be in some sort of balance, such that a feeling of well-being is generated.

What am I feeling happy about?

Firstly, about defining my market scope. I have outlined how I wish to interact with the market. I’ve not allowed the market to define me. That makes me happy.

Secondly, I’ve stuck to my strategy. Before that, I found my strategy. Phew!

Now you try it out.

The market shouldn’t bother you after you’re done with it. See to it. Programme yourself in such a manner. Once you’re done with the market, you can then utilise your time for other vitally important things in life. If the market were bothering you with its constant nag, you would not be able to do these things properly.

Congratulations, your life is now rounded off, and not mono-faceted.

Sticking to a winning strategy when things are not going your way is going to see you through.

I know, the urge to call it off and look for a new strategy is huge when your current one seems to be going South. However, you’ve tried and back-tested your strategy. It should hold and then some. Now, have the confidence to stick to a plan.

Notice something?

I’ve not spoken about money.

Why?

Because, mostly, money goes on auto, when these basics are standing strong.

From Target to Target

What’s your target?

Big one?

Fine. Good for you. Nothing wrong with having a big target. Go for it.

Big targets appear far.

That will need to be tackled.

Why so?

Because big targets are big, they take … you guessed it … time.

Getting to the big target requires handling time.

Yeah, that’s the killer.

Barely anyone around claims to manage time successfully.

Managing time can also mean inaction.

Barely anyone acknowledges that.

Time does us in.

We lose sight of the big target.

Game over?

Or is it?

No, not game over.

Nobody’s telling anyone to not have a big target.

Have it. Fine.

However, have many small ones.

Yeah. Many small targets.

Move from small target to small target.

That’s how you bridge your month, week, or even your day.

Oh, one other thing.

As far as the big target is concerned, forget about time.

Then, as you move from small target to small target, and you’ve forgotten about time, well, voilĂ , guess what just arrived…?

Yeah, your big target.

Cheers!

Where’s the Love?

Bro…

… it’s there…

… and it’s not.

You don’t find it, right?

You look and look.

You try everything.

Still not satisfied.

You think you’ve found it in something…

… or someone…

… is it there?

Possible… possible… possible…

… till it’s not.

It could’ve been there.

Then, it could’ve just gone.

Yeah, just like that.

Where does that leave you?

Are you to die without finding love?

Are you to find it beyond your current incarnation?

No point then, right?

Why not here?

Meaning right here, right now.

In the moment.

There is love in the moment.

It occupies a dimension.

You need to vibrate resonantly.

That’s when you start to mingle with its vibration.

You find it.

Your vibration warps.

You lose it.

Stay with it.

For a while.

The moment teaches you about the nature of what you look for.

Start to graduate.

Find it in ventures.

Some find it in finance.

Some become doctors.

Entrepreneurs.

Blah blah blah.

Post-grad to people.

Tough ball-game. We fail. Then we try again. We keep trying, till we kinda learn. Or not.

PhD in your life-partner.

Whoahhhhh, now you’re rolling.

Found it in your life-partner and stayed with it?

You’ve come a long way, bro!

Bully for you!

🙂

Manipulation / Fraud / Ponzi – I Reject You

I detest manipulation, and manipulators. 

I like people who are straight-forward, without hidden agendas. Simplicity is gold. Simplicity breeds success. Simplicity gives satisfaction from within. 

All the twisting and turning, wheeling and dealing, wangling and dangling of manipulation makes me want to puke. 

Therefore, manipulators, frauds, Ponzis, I reject you. Manipulation doesn’t make the manipulator happy. Try it and see. I’m 100% sure your story won’t have a happy end.

Rejection is a simple process. When you reject something, you stay away from it. You get out of its way when it is in the vicinity. You head off elsewhere when that something is headed in your direction. Everyone’s probably been rejected sometime or someplace, so everyone probably understands rejection. 

Well, rejection is one thing, but how does one recognise a manipulator, fraud, or Ponzi?

Recognition is key. 

This breed of people talk sweet. They appear harmless. They don’t lose arguments. Quick, witty, sharp. Fast thinkers. They keep you hanging. Give ambiguous answers. Mostly, they like to not answer at all, so as to keep you dancing around them, making you more vulnerable to their schemes or ulterior motives. If you’re interested in their something, they use silence as a weapon. You’re hot, you’re interested, they’re silent, makes you hotter, makes you more interested. The idea is that ultimately, when the manipulator breaks the silence, you lap up whatever you’re getting. Also, they keep you hungry for more. Manipulators are vicious, vile people. 

Where manipulators push you to act, slowly, but steadily, by twisting and turning your world in the manner they consider appropriate (since you’ve given them that power), frauds outright present a reality which sucks you in to sign the dotted line. Frauds sell a dream. It’s a great dream. You want to be a part of it. It overwhelms you. It’s almost too good to be true.

Ponzis are frauds. They sell the dream of unrealistically large returns. They count on greed to cloud your vision. They lure new sets of investors by distributing investorial proceeds from one set of investors as dividends to slightly older investors, and so on and so forth, till the bandwagon is overloaded with thousands of investors paying full-throttle only to see the Ponzi vanish next day, with everything, never to be heard of again. 

When someone doesn’t give you a straight-forward answer, walk the other way. Don’t bother with benefit of doubt, just walk the other way. With very high probability, you’ll have avoided a manipulator. When someone uses silence as a weapon, walk away ten miles. Warn everyone of a mega-manipulator in the neighbourhood. Analyze sweet- and smooth-talk ten times. Is there any truth in what’s being said, or are the words an eye-wash, hiding a fraud behind themselves? If you’re not greedy, you won’t fall for a Ponzi. Don’t be greedy. Period. 

You’ve hit full cycle. 

You’ve understood the existence of the breed we speak about. It has dawned upon you. Let’s call this “internal realization”.

Then comes “external recognition”, of the breed being in your vicinity, and trying to exercise its powers upon you. 

Lastly, comes “complete rejection”. 

Well done. 

You’ve saved yourself from lots of emotional and or monetary trouble. 

Spread the word. 

Happy Fifth Birthday, Magic Bull!

Turning 5, tick-tock, how time flies!

Has the game changed? 

No. 

What are we in it for? Why do we play?

Bread and butter. Security. Children, their future. Ourselves. Goals. Luxury. Whatever makes us tick. 

Each time we tick, let’s tick better. 

Mistakes mean learning. We’re seeing them as tuition fees, because mistakes cost money. They are the only real learning. You learn when you’re hit. You learn from the pain. 

All other learning is – paper learning. It doesn’t translate into our DNA easily (or at all). For DNA-translation, there needs to be a biochemical change in the body. Metamorphosis. If paper-learning does that for you, well, you’re lucky. Count your blessings. To be envied. 

Rewards bring hubris. 

Hubris makes us vulnerable. 

How?

We get lazy and are caught napping. Off-guard. Hubris-condition coupled with big market-mistake can mean downfall. Don’t want to take names, but exactly this has happened to many. 

What is it about success? What does it do to the human being? Why do we stop being ourselves once we succeed? Why do we stop learning once we succeed?

Yet, each one of us strives for success. 

Can we remember to behave ourselves once we succeed? 

What kind of behaviour are we talking about?

The same behaviour that paved the way for success. Can we maintain that same standard of behaviour? Why is that difficult? It becomes difficult because the after-party causes hangovers. Let’s just scrap the after-party. Let’s continue to be ourselves even after we succeed. 

Instead of the after-party, let’s do something for society, for example. We can even pursue a constructive side-game, which has nothing to do with the main-game. It keeps us ticking on a different level. 

It’s important to tick. The opposite of that is stagnation. Ticking means evolution. 

Evolution means that the next time you take a shot, you’ve better at your game. You’ve evolved because of past learning. You are human capital, remember?

Happy Ticking!

🙂